There are several books that I encourage everyone to read, and there are many others that I encourage everyone to read several times throughout their lives. One of my favorite books of all time is the literary classic The Great Gatsby by F. Scott Fitzgerald. In chapter two, the narrator of the story, Nick Carraway, heads to a party in New York City where he encounters obnoxiously wealthy partygoers living carefree lifestyles. This causes Nick to feel excited but also uncomfortable, comparing his own self-worth to this unrealistic idealized standard. It is in this exact moment that Nick gleefully declares, I was within and without, simultaneously enchanted and repelled by the inexhaustible variety of life. If ever there was a quote perfect enough to define the antiques and collectibles trade in 2022, this would be it. Numerous changes have gotten us to this point in the marketplace. We have discussed some of these before in great detail: the adoption of e-commerce and online auction sites, the acceptance of third-party grading, real time online pricing data. Even how we interact as collectors has been changed dramatically thanks to the massive growth in online collecting forums. Make no mistake, I am not advocating for any of these changes. Nor am I here to judge how good or bad these changes have been for the trade as a whole. Most of these changes are both good and bad, and in previous articles I have discussed the pros and cons of each of these. There is, however, one trend that we need to discuss that has always been in the background of the trade that is starting to rear its ugly head, especially with the price of most collectibles currently soaring. This trend is both controversial and alarming, but it cannot be unseen. This trend, of course, is market manipulation. Thanks to the adoption of the internet and readily available access to online population reports for third-party graded collectibles, along with real time pricing data, it is relatively easy to convince someone that something is worth a lot more than it actually is. Does anyone really think that certain collectibles that were once selling for just a few hundred dollars and are now selling for tens of thousands of dollars are in fact currently worth this amount simply due to organic demand? Or that all of a sudden everyone is an astute investor in the antiques and collectibles trade? Log on to any pop culture collecting forum right now, and a vast amount of speculators think they are geniuses simply because the price of their holdings has increased due to what appears to be increased demand. While it is true that the deluge of speculators coming into the collectibles market these past few years have been nothing short of remarkable, make no mistake, most of these individuals are on a collision course that will be met with disaster once these markets suffer any kind of correction. Most of these speculators being hurt by market manipulation are woefully unaware as to the amount of speculation their beloved collectibles value is based on. I have repeated this mantra several times, and it bears repeating again. Antiques and collectibles do not produce anything tangible. These are purely speculative assets that have no monetary income streams or underlying fundamentals. Just because your favorite auction site sold a copy of Batman #1 for a record price does not mean that the price of that particular collectible will always be worth that amount. You need to look at what is occurring in the overall marketplace that justifies why that particular item sold for that price at present time. For anyone reading this and asking that question, let me help answer it for you. Batman premiered in Detective Comics #27 published by DC Comics in May of 1939. Back in 1939, no one could have predicted the future popularity of Batman, and also at that particular time, very few people were attempting to collect comic books. Fast forward several decades later, and Batmans popularity was still soaring, and as a result the first issue of his stand-alone comic series (along with that copy of Detective Comics #27) are now selling for millions of dollars. It is easy to see why, but there are no guarantees that this trend will continue. Now lets compare that to an up-and-coming collectible like factory-sealed video games. It is hard to believe that a factory-sealed and graded copy of Super Mario 64 in 9.8 condition once hit a record price of $1.5 million just this past year. Unfortunately, just a few months later another copy of that same game in the same grade sold for about half that amount. How did this occur? Well, Super Mario 64 was a video game produced for the Nintendo 64 video game system that debuted in 1996. Adding to the speculative nature of this item is that video game grading and collecting just became a thing in the past few years, unlike comic book collecting that has been growing strong since the 1960s. It is easy for a novice collector driven by their emotions to compare Super Mario to Batman and reason they are both sought after pieces of pop culture memorabilia. This is not an incorrect notion; however, the markets for graded video games and for graded comic books are very different. It is this dichotomy that few speculators understand. Add in the fact that the market for any kind of third-party graded collectible can be easily manipulated, and you realize that a lot of these starry-eyed speculators coming into the trade with dollar signs dancing in their heads are going to be hurt financially. It is only a matter of time. I have written intensely about a lot of highly speculative collectibles that may not stand the test of time. Even as I write this, watching Antiques Roadshow, I can assure you that grading companies and auction houses are busy looking for the next big thing in the collectibles trade. And when they discover it, like they always do, it will be marketed using terms like alternative asset, investment grade, historic, scarce, and near mint. This is why I routinely advise collectors that if they want to know what the next big collecting category is going to be, they dont need to converse with other collectors at all. They just need to pay attention to what the grading companies and high profile auction companies are promoting at present time. Because at the end of the day, no one individual can manipulate these markets like companies that directly profit from them. This is one of the many reasons why speculating in a lot of these markets is inherently risky. Collectors no longer dictate what is hot in the collectibles trade. They just think they do. That is the end of my rant for today. Until next time. Shawn Surmick has been an avid collector since the age of 12. He currently resides in his hometown of Boyertown, Pa., and is a passionate collector of antiques and collectibles. His articles focus on various topics affecting the marketplace.