Buyers Beware, Investment Grade Rare Coins Are Hot Once Again
By Shawn Surmick - January 28, 2022
One of the most fascinating and sophisticated markets to study in the overall antiques and collectibles trade is the market for coins. More specifically, the market for investment grade rare coins. For those unaware, numismatics has been one of the oldest and most prominent collecting categories, with a yearly market cap estimated to be around $3.5 to $4 billion dollars. It can also be a good bellwether as to the health and strength of the overall collecting markets in general. Thanks in part to its direct correlation to the precious metal markets, coins tend to attract attention during times of economic instability. The most recent previous bull market for coins occurred in 2007 just before the great recession of 2008/2009. Now in the year 2021, interest in investment grade coins is at an all-time high. Taking time to review online auction offerings from the likes of Heritage Auctions, Stacks and Bowers, and Great Collections is sure to bring shock from the likes of collectors who have been out of the numismatic marketplace for some time. And while prices are nowhere near the unsustainable highs that occurred in the mid-1980s with the advent of third-party grading (and market manipulation, sigh), we are seeing high interest across the board in alternative assets. Make no mistake, coins are driving this trend. For beginning and new numismatists, Scott A. Travers wrote one of the best books on coin collecting, titled The Coin Collectors Survival Manual. I often recommend that any collector, regardless of interest in coins specifically, read this book. It does an excellent job discussing not only the historical importance of numismatics, but it introduces new collectors and would-be numismatists to the inner workings of the coin collecting market. It goes into painstaking detail as to what occurred during the 1980s coin collecting boom and talks about how the market for rare coins has always gone in almost predictable cycles. The book can be insightful to starry-eyed speculators, pop culture collectors, and unsophisticated investors who want to learn the basics of not only coins, but how collecting markets operate in general. The latest editions of The Coin Collectors Survival Manual even include an up-to-date commentary on the development of CAC (Certified Acceptance Corporation) and why it was desperately needed as a way to regulate the coin market for over-graded third-party graded coins. The grading of any collectible, coins or otherwise, is always more art than that of science and the creation of CAC by legendary numismatist John Albanese was a much-needed service for the rare coin marketplace. This is all covered in detail in this must-read book. Looking back on 2019, collectibles and many other alternate asset classes entered a bull market. Sadly, a lot of beginning collectors and investors coming into this market seem to be under the impression that rising prices in the collectibles trade are the norm, but this is not usually the case. Everything from comic books to pop culture collectibles to fine art to coins to collectible video games and Pokemon cards increased in value and demand over the past two years. For the most part, these massive price increases are unsustainable over the long term. Some of these markets have already started to correct. It should be no surprise that the demand for modern era Pokemon cards is not as great here at the end of 2021 as it was during the lockdowns of 2020. I fondly remember getting more than twice the pre-pandemic amount for certain not-so-vintage video games on eBay. Today, a lot of those prices are now back to almost normal pre-pandemic prices, with few exceptions. This is not to say that certain collectibles are not still trending. Even with all the mass allegations of market manipulation and collusion that have hit the graded vintage video game marketplace as of late, demand still remains strong across the board. The same can be said for certain key vintage comic books, and even some vintage Pokemon cards. Pop culture collectibles are some of the most sought after items on the collectibles side of the trade. However, whether that trend continues well into the future is anyones guess. I myself am a skeptic and have written about this many times before. Pop culture markets lack any historical relevance overall and they are always changing. Dont believe me? Go back to 1993, and let me know what you could have bought a copy of Amazing Fantasy #15 for, which ushered in the first appearance of Spider-Man and now sells for a sizable sum. Was Spider-Man not as popular in 1993 as he is now? The answer lies with any kid like myself who grew up with superheroes, and that answer is no. I fondly remember going to store after store looking for the highly sought after Marvel legends chase figures made by Toy Biz. Demand and the fickle tastes of collectors are ever changing. This all begs the question as to why rare coins are once again accelerating in price? Well, unlike pop culture collectibles, a lot of antique markets are cyclical. Coins are no different, and prices are still rising. Do a price check of what higher grade Morgan and Peace Dollars are selling for right now, especially the semi-key and key issues. If you have been out of the rare coin market for some time, I assure you it is jaw dropping. Gold coins and more specifically, scarce classic U.S. gold coins, are also running high right now. I consider these price increases to be quite healthy, given what coins experienced during the speculator boom of the 1980s. And, ironically, it is that event that starry-eyed pop culture collectors need to take some time to study before declaring that the market for their chosen collectibles only goes up. Some markets never return to their previous high prices, but make no mistake, the market for rare coins is as healthy as ever and has a long bright future ahead of it. Just dont tell the pop culture collectors that. Shawn Surmick has been an avid collector since the age of 12. He currently resides in his hometown of Boyertown, Pa., and is a passionate collector of antiques and collectibles. His articles focus on various topics affecting the marketplace.
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