If we get in my DeLorean time machine and journey back to the year 2021, the collectibles marketplace was at a very different place than it is today. It was at this time that the pandemic was in full swing and the collectibles market was also in an upward boom. For numerous reasons, nostalgia became Americas pastime, with several high-profile collecting categories taking center stage. This was at a time when prices for vintage comic books, vintage video games, and vintage toys started to go parabolic. Graded factory-sealed vintage video games were one of the newest and hottest collectibles on the block (the auction block, that is), and thanks to speculators thinking the sky was the limit, prices kept soaring. As a lover of vintage video games myself, I controlled my own emotions and became a voice of reason advising collectors (and also starry eyed speculators) that the market was in the grips of a speculative bubble. Most level headed collectors agreed with me, but some thought I was once again being too cautious. Here, I present two examples to show just how risky it is to be the first to attempt to speculate on less established collectibles. A mentor of mine in the trade, who taught me the graded coin market, used to always say that sometimes when you follow the masses, the m is silent. We start with the Legend of Zelda, first released for the Nintendo Entertainment System in the United States in August of 1987. This game, along with the original Super Mario Bros, helped define what Nintendo stood for and became synonymous with anyone who remembers playing a Nintendo system back in the 1980s. The game is so iconic that, much like Super Mario Bros, it spawned many, many sequels and remakes and is still a significant driver of profits for Nintendo today. As a result, a lot of vintage video game collectors want to own a factory-sealed first print copy of this game. If you grew up playing the original Nintendo, you will remember that this game was first released in a distinct gold colored box with a matching gold colored cartridge. First production run copies of this game (especially in factory-sealed condition) were always considered scarce, so when Heritage Auctions offered one graded by WATA Games in 8.0 condition on Oct. 31, 2021, a bidding war ensued. And when the auction ended, one unlucky bidder won the game for a whopping $705,000. Now you may be wondering why I called the winning bidder unlucky. Well, fast forward to Aug. 28, 2026, and the same game (this time graded by PSA, which purchased the video game grading company WATA Games several years ago) sold through Heritage Auctions for $62,500. This represents a loss of more than $640,000 from the sale back in 2021. So what happened here? It would appear in the years following the original sale in 2021 more factory-sealed first print Legend of Zelda games were discovered and graded, and most were in similar or better condition than this 8.0 graded copy. As such, this game became a shining example of supply and demand and why sometimes when you bid haphazardly into a speculative bubble you get burned. If this isnt enough of a cautionary tale, I assure you there are many more stories like this. Maybe the Legend of Zelda just isnt your thing? Maybe you are more of a Mario fan when it comes to Nintendo? I am sorry to tell you Mario isnt a safe bet either, especially in speculative markets like these. Case in point, a factory-sealed copy of Super Mario 64. For the uninitiated, Super Mario 64 was Marios first 3D adventure, released by Nintendo in September of 1996 for play on the Nintendo 64. The Nintendo 64 video game system was Nintendos answer to the Sony Playstation, and in the mid-1990s, video gamers were long awaiting Marios return on a powerful new system that was originally called the Ultra 64 (the name was eventually changed to the Nintendo 64, and the rest is history). On July 11, 2021, Heritage Auctions featured a factory-sealed copy of Super Mario 64 graded by WATA Games in 9.8 condition with an A++ factory seal. Bidding was fierce, intense, and insane. The game sold for a record breaking price of $1,560,000. That is not a misprint. This factory sealed game from 1996 sold for well over $1.5 million at auction. Shortly after this sale, I was interviewed by several news agencies and asked to give feedback about the sale. I dont think most of the news outlets questioning me liked my answer, as I simply said, the sale is completely ridiculous and unsustainable. It turns out I was right because on Aug. 28, 2026, Heritage Auctions sold a similar copy. This time it was graded by PSA, and it went for (wait for it) $225,000. This is where I must do my due diligence and remind readers that certain factory-sealed vintage video games are still in high demand, and $225,000 for an immaculate factory-sealed game from 1996 is still a tremendous amount of money. However, we are comparing todays prices of these speculative collectibles to yesterdays insane prices to prove that rushing in and blindly bidding up the newest collectible craze is usually a lesson in financial loss and regret. Back in 2021, the graded video game market was completely different. There were only two main grading companies grading vintage video games, and most of these companies didnt even publish population reports that show how many copies of each of these games had been graded by them. This made the market much more dangerous for newbies jumping in thinking they were ahead of the curve and buying before prices increased substantially more. That said, there is an excellent line from the 1987 movie Wall Street, A fool and his money are lucky enough to get together in the first place. Collectible speculators need to heed this warning and stop insanely bidding on items like this for fear of missing out. On second thought, maybe I should be looking at this from the standpoint of the sellers who were wise to consign these games to Heritage Auctions back in 2021 and see a considerable profit as a result? Nah, thats much too easy. Most likely those individuals already took my advice. Until next time. Shawn Surmick has been an avid collector since the age of 12. He currently resides in his hometown of Boyertown, Pa., and is a passionate collector of antiques and collectibles. His articles focus on various topics affecting the marketplace.