Speculation in the antiques and collectibles trade is not a foreign topic to anyone who has been active in the market for a decade or more. The rise and subsequent fall of Beanie Babies is probably the most popular example of a short-lived speculative bubble that captured the hearts, minds, and wallets of collectors and speculators alike. The example of Beanie Babies is fascinating when studying the topic of speculation in collectibles, but critics will lament that most popular and established collecting categories are not comparable to the fad-driven, come-from-nowhere plush toys of the 1990s. This is where we have to have a real conversation about the dangers and, to be fair to my critics, the possible rewards, of long-term investing in the antiques and collectibles trade. Certain markets in the overall trade seem to move in set cyclical patterns. Coins are a great example of this. Any astute coin collector can easily go back to the 1980s with the advent of third-party coin grading and chart the peaks and valleys of the rare coin market until today. Historical artifacts presents another bellwether of the antiques and collectibles trade, as do certain first-edition collectible books. All of these markets show time periods of increased and decreased demand. I dont think that anyone can ever argue that a 1933 Saint Gaudens $20 gold piece will ever struggle to be sold at auction (spoiler alert, the 1933 Saint Gaudens $20 gold coin is one of the most valuable coins ever sold, selling recently for close to $19 million). Looking past certain mainstay antique and collectible markets, pop culture collectibles have always been seen as speculative and risky. This is especially true over the long term. Im sorry to burst anyones bubble (pun intended), but Western toy themed collectibles are not coming back. Neither are vintage Atari and Colecovision video games, or even your fathers Mego action figures. Times change, collectors change, and what collectors covet always changes over time. It is a known fact that historical artifacts and antiques tend to have the best shot at still being desired and valued over the long term. This was accepted as an almost guarantee in the antiques and collectibles trade up through the early 2000s. Now, there is a market that is starting to challenge this thesis, and, make no mistake, I am still not convinced it will work out for the speculators and investors involved, but there is always hope (I have to say that as I am also a collector in this market). Comic books in the form that we know and love have been around since the beginning of the last century. The most popular comic books that are now prized collector pieces are all mostly based on superheroes like Batman, Superman, and Spider-Man. It is these characters that are still captivating the hearts and minds of children and adults worldwide, with an increased interest in vintage comic books that feature the early and first appearances of these beloved characters. Much like coins, the certification and grading of vintage comic books has become the norm. This has led to a massive rise in prices. Want to own the first appearance of the popular Marvel comic character, the Wolverine? Well back in 2012, you could have bought a near-mint copy of Incredible Hulk #181, which features his first full appearance, for around $3,000. Today in 2022, that same book is going to cost you over $20,000. Not a fan of the Wolverine, but love the Punisher? Well, the Punisher debuted around the same time as the Wolverine and was featured in The Amazing Spider-Man #129. In 2014, you could have easily gotten that book for around $2,000 or less in near-mint condition. Today, that same book will cost you $12,000 on average. Quite the massive run-up in prices, and even more surprising is when you consider these comic books were published in 1974 and are nowhere near rare or scarce. Dont believe me? Just check out the CGC (Comics Guaranty Corporation) online census that shows how many copies CGC has graded and encapsulated in each grade. We have yet to even get to the massive price increases of comic books published in the early 1960s, which is a coveted key era, also known as the silver age. This is where the origins of a lot of our favorite comic book characters like Doctor Strange, Spider-Man, Iron Man, and Thor all reside. Most of these books even in low to mid-grade will set you back six figures. This all begs the question as to how long can this last? Will there come a day in the antiques and collectibles trade where we mention bellwethers to the overall market and gleefully bring up vintage comic books in addition to historical documents and coins? As a lover of both history and pop culture collectibles, I am not that optimistic. The massive price increases we are seeing in certain collectibles across the board is due to the fact that a lot of these characters are still in the public consciousness. Couple that with mass market manipulation occurring in a lot of the markets for these items along with younger speculators fascinated with crypto-currency and collectibles and fearing stocks, and this could be a disaster in the making. Contrary to what my critics will tell me, I am not convinced that my copy of Werewolf by Night 32 featuring the first appearance of Moon Knight in near-mint condition should be selling for around $14,000 just because a live action series now streaming on Disney Plus was put into production. This same book could have been had for around $3,000 just a few years ago. In conclusion, there is a simple financial theory worth studying for those who think that collectible prices only go up with no long-term correction in sight. That financial concept is reversion to the mean. If you are speculating or investing in pop culture collectibles at present time, it is an exciting time to be alive. However, dont put all your eggs in one basket, and understand that at any time these markets could easily enter a prolonged bear market and never return to their current highs. This is why, as I have said many times before, all collectors should be prepared to sell and profit any gains if that is the goal. Now excuse me while I prepare to send my copy of Werewolf by Night 32 in CGC 9.4 to auction. Shawn Surmick has been an avid collector since the age of 12. He currently resides in his hometown of Boyertown, Pa., and is a passionate collector of antiques and collectibles. His articles focus on various topics affecting the marketplace.