Reason To Worry: What Is Currently Driving Massive Prices Being Paid For Collectibles?
By Shawn Surmick - September 25, 2020
It should come as no surprise that I have an interest in economics and finance, in addition to my genuine love for the antiques and collectibles trade. I routinely bring up the subjects of investing and speculating in my articles because this is a regular occurrence in the modern area collectibles trade. Agree or disagree, no one can dispute the amount of investors that now occupy the antiques and collectibles trade on a regular basis, and in a post digital age world, never before has so much information been readily available for the willing collector and investor. I am often fascinated with the amount of record breaking sales and auction houses that are now dealing in a lot of coveted artifacts from my youth. The $100,000-plus Magic: The Gathering card. The $50,000 Pokemon card. The $10,000 Nintendo game. On the other side of the spectrum we are seeing regular auction records being broken for historical artifacts, rare coins, and even high-end art. Whats even more mind blowing is that a lot of these records are being broken right now while the world is on standby due to the global pandemic. Just by looking at current world events, we could be facing a worldwide depression. Miraculously, however, there appears to be a disconnect from what is happening on Wall Street versus what is happening on Main Street. The antiques and collectibles trade has always mirrored the demographics of collectors quite well. Wealth inequality exists in the antiques and collectibles trade just as it does in the overall economy. There are collectibles for every socioeconomic demographic, regardless of income or assets. I interact daily with a multitude of collectors, speculators, dealers, and investors from within the trade. I have witnessed speculation on items that cost just a few dollars and have witnessed well financed, highly educated collectors target items that cost $50,000 each. Ironically, even in the current unknown times we are in, most collectors I talk to are not overly worried about the future. This is especially true in the high end side of the trade. A review of the recent Heritage Auctions Signature Comic and Comic Art Auction shows that there is an insane amount of cash coming into the collectibles trade at an alarming rate. I have not seen this amount of cash coming into the market in quite some time. Let me cite one example. On Feb. 21, 2019, Heritage Auctions auctioned off an original factory-sealed booster box base set of Pokemon First Edition cards. The auction ended at a record breaking price of $78,000, which includes the 20-percent buyers premium that Heritage charges. At the particular time this sale went off, the online collecting forums were abuzz of the news, and a lot of analysts in the trade were stunned. Pokemon first appeared on the scene in the United States in early 1999, meaning this item was literally only 20 years of age when it reached this record selling price. Fast forward to Sept. 10, 2020, and that same factory-sealed booster box from the first edition base set of Pokemon just sold for $198,000. That price also includes the 20-percent buyers premium. That means an investor going after a high-end Pokemon product more than doubled their money in a very short period of time. Interestingly enough, Pokemon isnt the only pop culture-based collectible that is soaring in value right now. We are seeing similar situations being played out in all aspects of the collectibles trade. Vintage video games, Magic: The Gathering, vintage comic books, and even in some cases, vintage toys, are all going strong. As someone who also dabbles in expensive collectibles, I was eager to learn more about the thoughts and mindset of some of these collectors. Part of me was curious as to why, in the middle of a global pandemic and economic uncertainty, would someone pay a record price for a box of Pokemon cards or a vintage comic book? Given my contacts within the trade, it did not take me long to get an answer. Most of the collectors operating in this pool of the market are already established, and most told me it was because they felt that the financial markets are being unfairly manipulated in what appears to be a massive speculative bubble in the antiques and collectibles trade. This response did not surprise me. It should be noted that it is not just the high end side of the collectibles trade that is trending upward. Thanks to the stimulus provided from the U.S. government and a period of enhanced unemployment benefits, even the lower end of the trade was quickly becoming inflated. Vintage video games that normally sold for $50 or less could be seen selling for eBay for $75 to $100 each thanks in part due to the global lockdowns instituted by most world governments. What is the average collector or gamer supposed to do when everything is closed and they are not working? Online shopping and home video gaming became among the top two choices. In conclusion, I am very cautious as to the amount of money now flowing into the antiques and collectibles trade. Investors and collectors need to be very careful as to what they are buying going forward and understand that no asset class can exponentially rise over the long term. A correction in some of these more speculative pop culture based collecting markets is long overdue. Long-term collectors and experts need to be more willing to speak out against the influx of newly minted investors coming into the trade who may not be as sophisticated as they would like to think. Until next time. Shawn Surmick has been an avid collector since the age of 12. He currently resides in his hometown of Boyertown, Pa., and is a passionate collector of antiques and collectibles. His articles focus on various topics affecting the marketplace.
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