Rising Interest Rates, Irrational Exuberance, And Collectibles
By Shawn Surmick - October 20, 2023
In his 1996 speech, The Challenge of Central Banking in a Democratic Society, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan coined the term irrational exuberance to define investor enthusiasm that drives assets fundamental prices higher than they justify. We saw this play out in various markets throughout the past few years, and, spoiler alert, the antiques and collectibles trade was not immune. I had thought that the Federal Reserves current direction to raise interest rates exponentially in an attempt to tame inflation would soften the rise of irrational exuberance in the collectibles market. Unfortunately, after vividly remembering the Beanie Baby craze, the run-up in prices of mass-produced sports cards of the late 1980s, and the speculator comic book bubble of the 1990s, I realized that human nature cannot be tamed even under the most grueling human circumstances. So, here we are in the year 2023 with rates on low-risk investments surpassing 5 percent, and collectors are still acting irrationally. Make no mistake, the following story is 100 percent true, and the names have not been changed to protect the innocent or the guilty. Regular readers should already know that Pokemon is one of the most popular licensed products to ever grace the modern era collectibles trade. During the pandemic, news reports appeared that featured starry-eyed speculators fighting in brick and mortar retail stores across the country to get their hands on everyones favorite pocket monsters. Since the pandemic, however, the insanity of hoarding Pokemon collectibles has started to die down, but the popularity still remains. Limited-edition mass-produced Pokemon products are still in extreme demand. Case in point, it was announced several months ago that the Pokemon company would engage in an unlikely cross-promotional event. The unlikely participant in this newest cash grab? None other than the Van Gogh Museum located in Amsterdam. Im still trying to wrap my head around the idea that a mentally ill artist who took his own life at the age of 37, is now immortalized in a crossover event with a cute collectible card game made for children, but here we are in 2023. Nothing is off limits in todays day and age. Whats even worse is that most of these speculators eyeing this product at present time care little about the artistic legacy of Van Gogh. They just realize that anything with Pokemon on it means dollar signs. Perhaps we shouldnt tell these starry-eyed speculators what an original Van Gogh painting like Starry Night sells for at auction (about $100 million, and that is a low estimate). That could be detrimental to the high end art market. Of course, as predicted, when the first batch of Van Gogh Pokemon merchandise and cards became available on Sept. 28, at both the retail Van Gogh Museum and online, a massive frenzy followed, and all merchandise sold out within minutes. Most of these items will be resold for much higher prices on auction sites like eBay or will end up sitting unopened in closets and basements as speculators hope for even more gains in the future (this mentality is exactly what fueled Beanie Baby fever back in 1990s). The Pokemon company once again made speculators happy at the expense of their true fan base. This is unfortunately a known trend in the modern era collectibles trade. Manufacturers simply drum up hype for a product, under-produce it, and then watch speculator insanity ensue, all while making millions of dollars. This is unsustainable over the long term regardless as to what my critics will tell you. Sadder still is what could have been seen as an educational way for more people to be exposed to the talented works of Vincent Van Gogh has become nothing but a cheap publicity stunt at the hands of the Pokemon company. Does anyone at the Pokemon company really believe that since they under produced this product it can be equated to the works of an iconic artist? Sadly, it was the speculators who won out in the end. Some of these items can now be seen selling on eBay for close to 20 times their original asking price, and demand is still growing. I will never pretend to understand what goes on in the mind of a modern era pop culture collector who is willingly paying those prices for what amounts to nothing more than mass-produced scarcity, but to each their own. It would appear, however, that irrational exuberance is here to stay even with interest rates on money market funds topping 5 percent. I guess you cannot regulate human greed and stupidity, even in the year 2023. Stay safe my friends. Shawn Surmick has been an avid collector since the age of 12. He currently resides in his hometown of Boyertown, Pa., and is a passionate collector of antiques and collectibles. His articles focus on various topics affecting the marketplace.
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