Some Collecting Markets Should Not Be Speculator Friendly
By Shawn Surmick - December 23, 2022
Oscar Wilde once famously declared, A fool is someone who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing. Warren Buffett has gone on record repeating this same mantra every time the financial world is rocked by mass speculation, whether the subject in question is real estate, meme stocks, cryptocurrency, artwork, or even collectibles. I myself, have long cautioned that the current market of mass speculation in the antiques and collectibles trade is here to stay as long as starry-eyed speculators continue to buy into this market blindly out of emotion rather than logic. The truth is that you can financially invest in antiques and collectibles just as you would financial assets, but the risks of investing in the antiques and collectible trade are far greater than that of a prudent and well diversified financial portfolio. This, however, doesnt stop the average speculator from trying, not realizing that there are an unfathomable number of ultra-wealthy market manipulators, grading companies, and auction houses more educated in these markets than the average speculator. I have uttered these words of caution in numerous articles. I also firmly believe that certain collecting categories, just due to their nature, should not be speculator friendly. This has been a topic of heavy debate in certain collecting circles, but I stand by my assessment and have been routinely criticized for it. A perfect case for my assessment is the market for rare coins. For the uninitiated, the market for rare coins has become one of the most mature markets in the entire antiques and collectibles trade. During the late 1980s, the market was rocked by a massive speculator bubble ushered in by Wall Street and a handful of wealthy investors (actually they were market manipulators, but I am trying to be nice here) looking to pump up coins as an asset class that everyone on Main Street needed to own. The results were disastrous, and the rare coin market spent the next decade digging itself out of a proverbial death spiral. When the dust settled, however, the market was left in a better position than before. During this time, collectors, dealers, and even investors learned that the rare coin market was a sophisticated market in its own right, using its own unique grading system and also different dynamics than that of standard collecting categories. For instance, eye appeal and toning play a major role to the value of a coin, even if it is third-party graded. To compare and contrast these market dynamics with that of vintage toys, I know very few collectors of vintage Star Wars toys that would pay a premium for discolored action figures, even if they appear pretty and unique due to the damage occurred. My simple point is that the rare coin market has always been complex, and that is one of its greatest strengths. Successful coin collectors and investors have a unique ability to patiently assess and analyze the value of a coin on an individual basis. The only other markets that I can currently think of at present time that require this same level of detail are traditional antiques and fine art. It should also be noted that most traditional antiques and fine art, unlike coins, do not have the benefit of third-party grading and encapsulation. Unfortunately, multi-billion dollar companies active in the collectibles trade do not see coins in the same light as the true collectors and purists. For many years now, several high-profile individuals in the coin collecting space have been pushing for an adoption of a new 10-point grading system. To be fair, there are some aspects of a 10-point grading scale that I fully agree with, but I suspect most individuals pushing for its adoption do not have true collectors in mind. The current grading scale in place for coins and paper money is the 170 Sheldon grading scale that was adopted by the American Numismatic Association in the 1970s, which became the standard for third party grading companies to use since their origins. Sadly, some in the coin collecting trade feel that the adoption of a 10-point grading scale would bring fresh new collectors (read: speculators) into the market and ensure that the market is more aligned with other collecting categories that also use third-party certification, like comic books, trading cards, video games, and toys. The problem is that all of those markets are rooted in pop culture. Coins are rooted in history. I have long cautioned about the effect on the trade of making more sophisticated markets speculator-friendly. It does not benefit the collecting markets in question, it simply brings more starry-eyed speculators into the fold who do not wish to study the history of these objects or how these markets work, but rather proudly declare the item is now an investment. We have seen this play out before. Do a price check on what certain factory-sealed vintage WATA-graded video games were selling for just two to three years ago, and look at what they are going for now. The results are astounding, as some of these games dropped well over 50 percent or more in value. That was due to a group of malicious market manipulators making these niche collectibles seem like cant-lose investments. Even comic book collectors are not immune from this trend. The simple reason that most collectors continuously lament that they cannot afford vintage high grade key issue comic books is simply because multi-billion dollar companies learned how to encase these once disposable pieces of newsprint in plastic and call them investment worthy. Now we have a new generation of collectors who, if asked what is so special about their beloved copy of Amazing Fantasy #15 (first appearance of Spider-Man), only know how to answer by looking at what is written on the grading label of the tamper evident plastic enclosure encasing the book. Make no mistake, I am one of the most diehard advocates of third-party grading you will ever meet but acknowledge that a lot of these third-party grading companies benefit highly from the current investment-driven mania that has taken hold of the collectibles trade. My next article will discuss my opinions on NGCs decision to release a new 10-point coin grading scale for 1982 and later modern era coins. Spoiler alert: I am not very impressed as of yet. Shawn Surmick has been an avid collector since the age of 12. He currently resides in his hometown of Boyertown, Pa., and is a passionate collector of antiques and collectibles. His articles focus on various topics affecting the marketplace.
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