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The Liquidity Trap: The Unseen Risk Of Investing In Antiques And Collectibles

By Shawn Surmick - January 01, 1970

Liquidity can simply be explained by how quickly and easily an asset can be converted into cash without affecting its market price. Some assets are much more liquid than others. For instance, one of the reasons most investors clamor to own stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and exchange traded funds is due to how easily they can be bought and sold. If you want to buy a simple stock market index fund like the S&P 500, you can do it through an online brokerage account any time the stock market is open. Same is true if you want to sell the fund at a later date. Best of all, there is no worrying about what price you will receive for the fund in question, as prices are updated by the second. Unfortunately, not all assets have this advantage. Real estate can be a complex asset to value and sell, and it generally takes time to sell a house or piece of land, especially if the seller wants to maximize its value. There can also be additional costs attached to selling a piece of real estate in the form of commissions and hidden expenses. Antiques and collectibles have similar challenges and expenses, especially if one chooses to sell through an auction house. Recently, I took part in an interesting discussion about the long-term investment potential of both antiques and collectibles. I have long argued that under the right circumstances, certain types of antiques and collectibles can be a good diversification hedge against traditional financial assets and real estate. This does not mean I think that individuals should have large portions of their net worth invested in these relics. It simply means that if an astute financially well-established collector wants to invest in some of the items they collect and understands the risk, it can be a rewarding pursuit. However, this does not mean this endeavor is without risks. Any aging antiques dealer can tell you about markets that were once rocked by high prices and speculative frenzies only to come crashing down and never return to their previous high prices again. Not all markets in the antiques and collectibles trade are cyclical like some collectors believe. In fact, most are not. An example of this would be the market for vintage toys. With very few exceptions the market for vintage toys and most pop culture collectibles is always changing. Most toy collectors gravitate towards collecting the toys they grew up with. Case in point, I was born in the mid-1970s and was weaned on Kenner Star Wars action figures and Nintendo video games. I have a friend who grew up in the 1960s and loves his Mego action figures and Atari video games. Now as adults we both fondly collect these items, and some have proven to be good long-term investments as well, but that could change at any minute. Collectibles have no underlying cash flows attached to them and are, as a result, extremely speculative. One of the biggest risks to attempting to invest in any kind of antique or collectible, especially over the long term, is what I call the liquidity trap. Right now, modern era Pokmon cards and products are disappearing from store shelves and distributor inventories faster than they can be produced. Nintendo, the popular video game company who holds a profitable stake in the Pokmon franchise, has a problem on their hands that most manufacturers would envy: they simply cannot produce enough Pokmon cards to satisfy eager buyers. This has created a nightmare scenario for eager parents trying to get Pokmon cards at retail stores for their kids and having to fight off grown adults who grew up on Pokmon in the 1990s and who are now attempting to invest in them. Nintendo, along with Game Freak (the company that has a controlling interest in the Pokmon franchise), have continued to ramp up production year after year, and amazingly, as quickly as new sets are released, product is immediately bought, kept as an investment, or ripped open in an attempt to find the most valuable limited cards which are then sent immediately to a third-party grading company. This scenario has been playing out for many years since Pokmon fever started to become a thing during the pandemic. But it wasnt always like this. Believe it or not, there was a time when you could walk into any store and find massive amounts of Pokmon products on store shelves. In fact, there have been multiple times throughout the history of the Pokmon franchise where interest was lackluster at best. This begs the question: what happens when the starry-eyed speculators that have entered the modern era Pokmon market over the past few years lose interest? More frightening is what happens when the financial returns of speculating in the latest Pokmon set dont materialize? What happens when the line on the proverbial Pokmon investing graph starts to go sideways or down instead of directly up? This could potentially create a liquidity problem when all these speculators run toward the exit and sell. Incidentally, it was just six short years ago during the pandemic when vintage comic books were considered to be the darling of the collectibles trade. If you had any key superhero or horror based comic book, it could easily be sold for top dollar. Unfortunately, today in 2026, the market has cooled. Starry-eyed speculators and investors have turned their attention to trading cards like Pokmon, sports cards, and even vintage toys. As a result, all that money that was flowing into the vintage comic book market has shifted, leaving some high-profile collectors shaking their heads and asking when that money will return. I have had several high-profile vintage comic book collectors tell me that if they sell their collections right now, they will lose a significant amount of money. Some have even stated that their only choice is to roll the dice at auction because a lot of high-profile vintage comic book dealers are awash in inventory. If the book isnt in demand, isnt scarce, or in high grade, dealers dont really want it. As a result, prices for vintage comic books are down about 20 percent across the board with few exceptions (obviously your mega key books like Action Comics #1 and others have been spared and are trending at all time highs right now). This all brings us back to the topic of liquidity. What most antique and collectible investors fail to understand is that when a market is booming, it is quite easy to sell into the hype and maximize a financial return. During the pandemic, auction houses were begging for high-quality graded comic books and video games. However, when market sentiment shifts, youre now stuck holding onto an asset that is very hard to liquidate for cash. This poses a major risk for anyone investing in these markets, especially over the long term. This is why investing ones entire net worth in collectibles comes with massive amounts of risk. That said, certain markets are better than others. For instance, trusted third-party grading has brought a level of liquidity to a lot of collectible markets. Graded coins have benefited the most from this development. However, like we are seeing with certain vintage comic books and other third-party graded pop culture items, just because your items are graded does not mean the market will always be at the level you think your items are worth. Always remember that the owner of any collectible always values the collectible the most. And that is the most important lesson here. Shawn Surmick has been an avid collector since the age of 12. He currently resides in his hometown of Boyertown, Pa., and is a passionate collector of antiques and collectibles. His articles focus on various topics affecting the marketplace.
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