What Will Become Collectible In The Future?
By Shawn Surmick - February 02, 2024
One of the questions I am asked when someone learns of my background in the antiques and collectibles trade is, What items will be sought after and collectible in the future? To be honest, I never liked this question. We live in a world where antiques and collectibles are often seen as a valid alternate asset class worthy of investment, for better or worse. Social media has changed the collecting landscape forever thanks to wannabe influencers who can be seen pumping up the demand and value for everything from Pokemon cards to Lego sets to luxury watches and handbags. Hoarding is now the norm. If a new Lego set, Pokemon release, or video game gets any type of attention at all, it will be gobbled up and immediately kept in factory-sealed condition waiting for the day it can be sold for a premium on the secondary market. We have seen this all before and know how it ends. For most speculators that engage in this craft, it will end badly, with hoarding being the unfortunate outcome. A select few, however, will get in and get out at the right time and consider themselves experts, not understanding that it was just a matter of timing. It is no secret that I engage in both short-term speculation and long-term investment in the antiques and collectibles trade. Whenever I make money in these markets I often question if it was my own knowledge that allowed it to happen or if it was just plain luck. Way too many people are staking a claim on collectibles in the past few years who think they are talented but are quickly learning they just got lucky. As I have said a thousand times before, a well-diversified financial portfolio of financial assets should be your starting point before attempting to find your own pot of gold in the unregulated and highly speculative collectible markets. But I digress, because the younger set will never bother to listen. So, without further ado, here are my top picks and words of caution for anyone wondering what I believe will most likely be collected in the future. And let me leave you with a word of caution before I start this list. The things that are usually the most valuable items in the antiques and collectibles trade are items no one ever thought would ever be worth holding onto over the long term. My list contains mostly pop culture collectibles because I do not engage or encourage hoarding. Hoarding is a disease, collecting is a passion. It is important to know the difference. 1. Nintendo Switch video games and quite possibly all modern era physical video games. With the sad decline of physical media already upon us and countless stores discontinuing carrying physical media in general, the act of being able to hold your favorite video game in hand is becoming a thing of the past. Video game manufacturers cannot wait to cut production on these items altogether and sell you a $59.99 digital download instead. This is going to ignite mass demand for these kinds of physical products in the future. Words of caution. Unfortunately, everyone is already hoarding this stuff, and specialty publishers are already producing limited run games to take advantage of the hype. Also, one has to be cautious, as some modern era video games, mainly for the current generation Xbox and Playstation systems, require an internet connection and the download of a potential patch before the game is playable. Once these servers go offline (and they eventually will) these kinds of games, even in physical form, will be virtually worthless. 2. DVD, Blu-Ray, and 4K movies in physical form. You should start to notice a trend here. Just like physical video games, the decline of movies in physical form is happening at an alarming rate. Case in point, you can still buy physical video games at Best Buy, but the retailer is already discontinuing physical movie sales. This is causing chaos in the market with some enthusiasts attempting to buy out all existing stock. Words of caution. Dont overreact to this news. Physical movies never were as collectible as other types of physical media. Vinyl records have a hardcore following simply because they have a unique sound vs. cassette tapes and compact discs. No one knows the future and in few instances, the return on investment from hoarding most of these items is going to be very small. 3. Modern era action figures, specialty toys, and related items. It is no secret that action figures and playsets are dying a slow death at retail. With Toys R Us gone and no new specialty stores in this space, along with children wanting video games and iPhones instead, the market for action figures and related toys is being propped up by aging enthusiasts who never grew out of them. Go visit the clearance aisle at any big box retailer, and it is littered with failed action figures and releases of toy lines that first premiered in the 1980s. No one is buying this stuff anymore. Words of caution. Just because something is not popular does not mean it will become collectible. Action figures and toys work best as collectibles when true nostalgia is involved. If these items went unsold, most likely there will be little demand for them in the future. Right now, Lego has a lock on the toy market, but with mass speculation and hoarding taking place in that market at present time, I would advise caution in that market as well. 4. Collectible card games (Pokemon, Magic: The Gathering, and others). Mass speculation and hoarding is already the norm in this oversaturated market. Go on YouTube and TikTok, and you will see social media influencers hyping these items to the moon, while starry-eyed speculators hoard them in hopes that they go up in value over time. Some, very few, will sell for a premium in the future. The problem is the opportunity cost of tying up your money in items like this over the long term is a fools game. Still, opportunity does exist here, even if it is limited in scope. Words of caution. Everyone is doing this. Stop and think before speculating. Look at the returns of an S&P 500 index fund over the past 10 years instead and know with passive index fund investing, there is no inventory to buy and hold, no effort to go and sell it, and very little to no transactional costs. Do you really want to tie up thousands of dollars in products you may not be able to sell? Before you answer, just know, older generations fondly remember the junk wax era of sports cards that occurred in the late 1980s. Go talk to them. They have the answers you seek. Speculation is usually a game played by fools for fools. History never lies. That is the end of my list. Heed my words of caution. Shawn Surmick has been an avid collector since the age of 12. He currently resides in his hometown of Boyertown, Pa., and is a passionate collector of antiques and collectibles. His articles focus on various topics affecting the marketplace.
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